Contents
Books
Defoe, D. (c1992). A Journal of the plague year: authoritative text, backgrounds, contexts, criticism. W.W. Norton: New York.
The text of a Journal of the plague year — Backgrounds: The plague of 1665 and the threat of 1720-21: Orders conceived and published by the Lord Mayor and Aldermen of the city of London, concerning the infection of the plague, 1665 — From reflections on the weekly bills of mortality and natural and political observations upon the bills of mortality / John Graunt — Necessary directions for the prevention and cure of the plague in 1665 / College of physicians — From God’s terrible voice in the city /
Journal Articles
John Graunt on causes of death in the city of London. (2009). Population and Development Review, (2), 417.John Graunt’s book, ‘Natural and Political Observations
Mentioned in a Following Index and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality’ is a pioneer in political arithmetic covering different topics including the cause of death in London. Among the identified causes are apoplexy, accidents, and jaundice. Implications of mortality trends in London are also discussed.
Johansson, S. R. (2003). When numbers began to count for health policy: a review essay *. Population And Development Review, (4), 715.
Research that is recognizably demographic in character reaches all the way back to 1662, when John Graunt wrote Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality. Although Graunt’s […]
Rothman, K. J. (1996). Lessons from John Graunt. The Lancet, (8993), 37.
Modern scientists can learn from John Graunt who based his 17th century epidemiological views on vital statistics. The Londoner Graunt published extensive observations extracted from public weekly statistics, the Bills of Mortality. His accomplishments include life-tables, the description of new diseases, population estimation, and death frequencies. According to Graunt, more boys than girls are born, and the plague did not spread by contagion. Excellent records are more important than elaborate data processing, a technique unknown 300 years ago. Graunt’s work contains lessons for today, such as its brevity, clear reasoning, subjecting theories to multiple testing, invitation to criticize, and a willingness to revise. Statistical significance testing may be an unnecessary trend best to be avoided. Instead, one should do as John Graunt by using estimation.